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In part one of this blog I talked about the difficulty of prediction and planning for White Swan (unpredictable events with high positive impact) whilst minimising the risk of Black Swan events (unpredictable events with high negative impact).
So, what can we actually do?
How do we apply strategic planning in a world of uncertainty?
I don’t often say this but… imagine you’re a turkey…
It’s your first day of life, and the world feels loud, confusing, and dangerous. You chirp anxiously, calling out in the hope of assurance and food. Thankfully, your call is answered, food is provided, and your fears are assuaged for just a little longer. You still fear the uncertain, it makes you uneasy, but hey… you get fed every time. In fact, day in and day out, the world reassures you, you will get fed, you are safe. For 1000 days in fact, this has been the trend, and who can argue with 1000 days of data?!
Unfortunately for the Turkey, day 1001 is Thanksgiving…